The Times, they are a Learning

A new editorial on the New York Times lays out the case for election integrity and credibility in: A Tale of Three (Electronic Voting) Elections <read>

Electronic voting has made great strides in reliability, but it has a long way to go. When reformers push for greater safeguards, they often argue that future elections could produce the wrong result because of a computer glitch or be stolen through malicious software. That’s being too nice.

There have already been elections in which it is impossible to be certain that the right candidate was declared the winner. Here are three such races. It is not just remarkable that these elections were run so badly, but also that the flaws are still common — and could easily create havoc in this fall’s voting.

They provide three examples and three lessons. The first and third of which we have not learned well enough in Connecticut

Lesson: Electronic voting makes large-scale vote theft easy. A patch slipped onto voting machines or centralized vote tabulators can change an election’s outcome. Every piece of software must be scrutinized by neutral experts. If there is not enough time, election officials need a backup plan, such as conducting voting entirely on paper ballots…

Lesson:
Electronic voting machines must produce a voter-verifiable paper trail for each vote so voters can see that their choices register properly. In a disputed election, the paper, not the machine tallies, should decide who wins…

Lesson: Paper ballots alone are not enough. There must be strong audit laws that mandate comprehensive hand recounts when an election is close.

After the 2000 election debacle, Americans demanded a better system of voting. What we have gotten is new technology with different flaws. If the presidential race is close, this year’s “hanging chad” could be a questionable result on electronic voting machines that cannot be adequately investigated.

John Gideon Leaves It To Us

We get a healthy dose of news from John Gideon at VotersUnite.org and his Daily Voting News. Today he highlights the difference between a legislator and the Secretary of State in Colorado: <read>

The state Senate Majority Leader is quoted as saying this about the election integrity community, “I believe the group has gotten larger. It’s become more mainstream and people are paying more attention to them. They are an entity that’s at the table and has a voice that is listened to”. Meanwhile the Secretary of State told the newspaper, ““I think they have a fundamental belief that anything electronic, as it relates to voting, is evil and undermines our political system. They live in a world of conspiracy theories and are highly motivated. No matter what I do, so long as it leaves some form of electronic voting intact, it will be wrong by their standards”. I’ll leave it to the reader to make up their mind who is correct….

Answer below.

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Risks Continue For 2008 – Myths Have Not Been Repealed Nor Refuted

Note: A post by Jon Kantrowitz on MLM prompted this response.

There is no reason to be comfortable. The “Ten Myths In The Nutmeg State” have not been repealed.

I have the greatest respect for the computer scientists mentioned in the article, their research, and their contributions. We also need many more election officials as conscientious Ion Sancho. He is one of the stars of “Hacking Democracy” and a tireless advocate <video>

To their ranks I would add Dr. Alexander Shvartsman of the UConn VoTeR Center. He and his team have had papers selected for the ACCURATE conference this year and last <read> <read>.

Where I diverge from the article is in its conclusion:

thanks to this team of computer scientists and their partners in the public sector, communities across the country will be better prepared to prevent malicious attacks and mishaps at the ballot box.

This is true but to a very limited extent because so few states have used the well known and not so well known available information about voting risks to take action to protect our votes.

In Connecticut:
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No Paper, No Problem*

We favor paper filled out by voters, followed by optical scan, followed by a sufficient audit, just like 100%** of computer scientists.

* unless you want your vote actually counted and counted correctly
** very vary small margin of error, such as Michael Shamos.

Here is an example from Shamos’ state of the start of just an average day of paperless voting:

Bethlehem, PA:

In Bethlehem…When judge of elections Craig Hynes swung open the doors, 15 people rushed in, including some that had been their since 6:40 a.m….Hynes said. “This is going to be a long day.”

Moments later he realized how long it could be when one of his three voting machines malfunctioned. After four people had voted, he realized that it had only registered one voter. He had to reset machine.

“We lost three voters and there’s no getting them back,” explained Hynes, “and at this point we don’t even know who they were.”

At least one voter still has “hope” that their vote counted for some candidate, while we can hope that three will not “change”. Not the only problem <read more>

As they have said about Pennsylvania at Verified Voting:

Pennsylvania’s Presidential primary on April 22 will be essentially unrecountable, unverifiable, and unauditable – an irony, because state law requires manual audits of a statistical sample of ballots cast in elections.

Over 85% of Pennsylvania’s voters live in counties in which paperless electronic voting is the only method of voting at the polling place.

Why We Vote: To Keep A Republic

Robert Koehler, Huffington Post, Keep The Republic, <read>

The ground feels a little soft, but we’re going to stand it.

Premise one: Having a fair election — all votes counted, all who are eligible and want to vote allowed to vote — is far, far more important, even in 2008, than who wins.

Premise two: Fair elections are not a given. They never have been, but things are worse now than ever before because of a perfect storm, you might say, of factors that have converged in the new millennium: officialdom’s seduction by unsafe, high-tech voting systems; the seizure of power by a party of ruthless true believers who feel entitled to rule and will do anything to win; a polite, confused opposition party that won’t make a stink about raw injustice; and an arrogantly complacent media embedded in the political and economic status quo.

The result: Benjamin Franklin’s worst nightmare.

“Well, Doctor, what have we got — a Republic or a Monarchy?”

“A Republic, if you can keep it.”

“This really is the serious business of our lives,” said Ion Sancho, election supervisor of Leon County, Fla., a fair-elections hero and one of the participants. “My goal is waking people up. My tactic is to put myself in the middle of the road and say” — to anyone who would suppress or interfere with the vote — “hey, you’re going to have to hit me.”

These are just words unless you sign on with your life.

Courant Editorial: Don’t Overlook The Assumptions

We agree with the overall thrust and purpose of the editorial, to support the encoding in statute of privacy measures in the polling place to protect secret ballot and voters’ confidence in privacy.

Where we disagree is with some of the assumptions of the ediorial which subtely reaffirm the Courant’s blind faith in the integrity of our optical scan systems

In an editorial today, Protecting Poll Privacy, the Hartford Courant supports SB 444, “An Act Concerning Certain Revisions and Technical Changes to the Election Laws” <read editorial>

We support provisions of the latest versions of H.B. 444 and H.B 5888, “An Act Concerning Revisons To The Optical Scan Voting System”. Revised versions of both bills (not yet available online) passed the Government Administration and Elections Committee last week,

We agree with the overall thrust and purpose of the editorial, to support the encoding in statute of privacy measures in the polling place to protect secret ballot and voters’ confidence in privacy.

Where we disagree is with some of the assumptions of the ediorial which subtely reaffirm the Courant’s blind faith in the integrity of our optical scan systems. Recall a myth based editorial in September that said “So far, no one appears to have figured out how to tamper with the machines” completely ignoring research from around the country including our own University of Connecticut and a full court press to dismiss polls after the New Hampshire primary.

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American Statistical Association: Hard Copy Audits Critical To Election Integrity

Press Release: American Statistical Association Calls for Audits to Increase Confidence in Electoral Outcomes, ASA Board adopts position on Electoral Integrity <release> . This should erase all lingering doubt on the part of legislators, election officials, and non-statisticians:

“Trustworthy elections demand integrity throughout the entire electoral process, from voting laws and regulations to details of implementation, including maintaining voter registration lists and a secure chain of custody for voted ballots. All processes and data of US elections should be subject to statistically sound, continuous-quality monitoring and improvement. Data releases should be comprehensive and timely and follow standardized, readily analyzable formats. It is critical that the integrity of central vote tabulations be confirmed by audits of voter-verified hard-copy records in order to provide high — and clearly specified — levels of confidence in electoral outcomes...

Certification of any electoral outcome should require substantiating evidence that the putative winner was the intended selection of the plurality of voters. Compelling statistical evidence of electoral failure should be accepted as a basis for judicial remedy.

This is in addition to an earlier statement covered here several months ago:

The American Statistical Association’s Science and Public Affairs Advisory Committee has recommended that post election audits have at least a 90% level of confidence.

Election officials need to make sure the person elected winner is the person the most voters want..Election results are most trustworthy when the entire election process can be audited, not just the vote counts…the audit should have the statistical power to trigger additional action at least nine out of 10 times when the wrong winner is declared.(emboldening added)

There should be no remaining question that statistical audits represent the only recognized mainstream scientific method for insuring effective audits and are a necessary component of audits that can provide true confidence in election results.

Doth The Courant Protest Too Much?

Perhaps there is one thing worse than a voting system we cannot trust, outsourced, and unaudited. It is a media we cannot trust, downsized, outsourced, bent only on profits, oligarchical, and failing to actually do the work necessary to do the research and reporting necessary for democracy.

Updates:

Brad Friedman defends us all against false accusations <read>
Sometimes its politically correct to believe the exit polls <read>

NH Secretary of State’s Press Release On Recount
Starting 1/16: <read>
Dennis Kucinich statement: <read>
Oberman + Rush Holt, Excellent Video <watch>
Will the recount be satisfactory? Questions raised <read>

Perhaps there is one thing worse than a voting system we cannot trust, outsourced, and unaudited. It is a media we cannot trust, downsized, outsourced, bent only on profits, oligarchical, and failing to actually do the work necessary to do the research and reporting necessary for democracy.

Englehart  Cartoon 1/11/2008

As I have written on Englehart’s Comments at the Courant:

It seems from the Courant articles and editorial yesterday, and now this cartoon, that the machines are infallible and the past proven accuracy of polls is completely disregarded.

The cartoon should be showing the Crystal Ball as a Diebold optical scanner and a trusting media expressing complete faith in its unchecked results.

There are legitimate questions about the discrepancy between the polls and the machines. The way to resolve these questions is not through faith, but through science by actually counting the paper.

There is no proof the machines were inaccurate. There is no proof the polls are inaccurate. What there is, is an absence of solid investigation to give us confidence.

Yesterday we had a flurry in the Courant all focused on the idea that the polls were wrong. Two articles, the lead editorial, an op-ed, and four letters to the editor:

Big Loser In N.H. Race: The Pollsters <read> Where with no evidence arguments are developed to explain the discrepancies in the polls – except any acknowledgement of the possibility that the machines did not count accurately.

Clinton’s ‘Cry’ Resounds in Presidential Campaign <read> Where the argument that it was Clinton’s crying that moved the voters.

Editorial: Only Pollsters Are Upset <read> Confirming the case made in the earlier articles. Surprisingly the Courant ignores all the voting advocates that are concerned with the lack of auditing of the machines and the unanswered questions. I would say we are not surprised at the lack of investigation yet we are more than concerned with the state of election integrity <read> <read> and the media’s rush to judgement.

Letters to the Editor <read> Four letters to the editor, in their own box in the print edition serve to reinforce the same theme.

Op-Ed: Is U.S. Ready For Obama <read> An op-ed, more than hinting that the voters in N.H. are racist and lied to the pollsters to cover that up.

Remember that the Courant Editorial Board has a reputation to keep. They must stick to their earlier claim that “So far, no one appears to have figured out how to tamper with the machines”. <read> Completely discrediting the vast majority of computer scientists, the Carter-Baker Commission, the Brennan Center for Justice, the Secretary of the State of California, and Dr. Shvartsman and his team at the UConn Voter Center.

Update: David Lindorf article <read>

Jonathan Simon, an attorney and co-founder of the group Election Defense Alliance, says that the vote discrepancies between machine and hand counts in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary are troubling, and defy easy explanation.

“The trouble is, whenever you have a surprise result in an election, and it runs counter to the polls, the media always say the problem is the polling, not the counting.” But he adds, “The thing is, these things always work in one direction-in favor of the more conservative candidate, and that defies the law of quantum mechanics.”

DemocracyNow! Interviews New York Times Author

<read, listen, view> More scary and devastating than reading the article in the New York Times Magazine.

Still does not fully address the similar issues of optical scan which are only solved with sufficient post-election audits. Yes, recounts of the paper from optical scan is vary reassuring, yet recounts are seldom done, even in cases of important suspicions, like the recent New Hampshire Primary. Precisely why we need post-election audits.

This interview does more fully cover the issues of outsourcing.